Caulfield Guineas Tips - Who will win the Caulfield Guineas based on historical trends?

  • How does history help us find the winner of the Caulfield Guineas?
All Too Hard defeated Pierro in a classic Caulfield Guineas in 2012

The Caulfield Guineas (1600m) is arguably the best three-year-old race on the Australian Racing Calendar and has a star-studded honour roll that features the likes of All Too Hard, Weekend Hussler and Lonhro. 

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The 2012 edition was one of the most memorable after All Too Hard upset the heavily fancied Pierro and the 1999 match race between Redoute’s Choice and Testa Rossa was another epic. 

Using the results of the Caulfield Guineas since the year 2000 as a guide, there are a few things to keep in mind when finding a winner. 

The race has generally been a good one for punters with six favourites winning in that time as well as another four who started at single figure odds. There have only been two ‘blowout’ winners since 2000, Econsul at $41 in 2004 and In Top Swing at $21 in 2003. 

Last year’s winner, Shooting To Win, started as a $7.50 chance and gunned down the $4 favourite Rich Enuff. The fellow Peter Snowden galloper, Long John, won the event in 2013 at $3.75 while Helmet won at $2.25 in 2011. Pierro started at $1.20 when he was rolled by All Too Hard ($12) in 2012. The average starting price of the winners since 2000 has been $9.50. 

The race usually brings together the finest three-year-old gallopers from both Melbourne and Sydney and as always there is conjecture about which state has the best lead up form. 

It is interesting to note that ten of the past 15 winners have come through lead up races in Melbourne including seven from the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m). Two winners have come out of the Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m) and three from Sydney’s Stan Fox Stakes (1400m). 

This year, the race favourite, Press Statement, comes out of the Stan Fox, while Bon Aurum, Tulsa, Dal Cielo and Ready For Victory are among the notable gallopers to come out of the Prelude. The David Hayes and Tom Dabernig-trained Sovereign Nation comes out of the Stutt Stakes. 

The Caulfield Guineas is seen as a future stallion-making race with top sires including Lonhro (2001) and Redoute’s Choice (1999) to have won the race. Since 2000, 11 colts have won the Guineas while only four geldings have been successful in the event. 

This year, Bassett and Tulsa are the geldings in the race while the other gallopers will be looking to make a name for themselves this Saturday and later on at stud. 

The Caulfield Guineas has generally attracted close to a capacity field and this year there are 17 runners. Horses that have drawn within barriers 1-8 appear to have an advantage in the Caulfield Guineas as these barriers have accounted for 11 of the 15 winners since 2000. 

Three of the past six winners have jumped from Barrier 1 including Long John (2013), Anacheeva (2010) and Starspangledbanner (2009). This year, Sovereign Nation has drawn the inside. 

Barrier 8 has also had three winners since 2000, while Barrier 4 has had two. This year, Dal Cielo jumps from 8 while Ready For Victory gets his chance from 4. 

The most successful trainer since the year 2000 has been Peter Snowden with three winners while Bart Cummings and Leon Corstens have had two wins apiece. None of that trio will have a runner this year. 

John Hawkes has had two winners in the race. The champion  galloper, Lonhro, saluted in 2001 before Hawkes teamed with his sons, Michael and Wayne, in 2012 to win with All Too Hard. This year the stable have Rageese and Snoopy in the race. 

Steven King, Kerrin McEvoy and Luke Nolen have all enjoyed two wins in the Guineas since 2000. Of that trio, only McEvoy has a ride this year and he will be on Bon Aurum. 

Selections based on trends:
Dal Cielo ($11 Crownbet) and Bon Aurum ($15 Ladbrokes)


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Caulfield Guineas Tips - Who will win the Caulfield Guineas based on historical trends?

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